July 19 (Bloomberg) -- Over the past several months, a handful of high-profile Senate races, Connecticut, Florida, Kentucky, Illinois and Nevada, have tilted in the Democrats’ direction. This has sparked hope in President Barack Obama’s party that the November elections may not be so bad after all.
It’s a mirage. All these changes are due to sui generis Republican woes. Today, it’s an even bet Republicans will pick up the 39 House seats necessary to take control and gain a net of more than a half-dozen Senate seats.
What’s lethal for Democrats is that the election is being framed by the economy, and views are locking in, with voters getting more, not less, pessimistic.
Last week’s Bloomberg poll of Americans underscored the deep and pervasive economic pessimism. Most voters say they think the country is really off on the wrong track and remains in a recession, even though the downturn actually ended last September.
A couple groups are especially unsettling for the president and Democrats. Less than one in five independents says the country is on the right track, and a plurality gives Obama negative ratings. In 2008, Obama carried the independent vote 52 percent to 44 percent.
Obama captured 56 percent of women age 30 to 59, who also were major supporters of Democratic congressional candidates in 2006 and 2008. In the survey, more of these women in that age bracket say they think the economy is getting worse rather than better, and more believe that personally they are worse off than when Obama became president.
Economic Performance
Ray Fair, an economist at New Haven, Connecticut-based Yale University who projects electoral results based primarily on economic performance, currently sees Democrats winning 50.5 percent of the House popular vote, which would probably be enough for the party to retain control, though sharply down from the current 255 to 178 split (with two vacancies). This is predicated, he says, on “reasonably strong” economic growth in the third quarter.
Currently, the consensus forecast is for growth of a little less than 3 percent, which probably would reduce Fair’s forecast for Democrats.
Ann Selzer, the Des Moines, Iowa, pollster who conducted the Bloomberg survey, says it will be exceedingly hard to reverse these perceptions about the economy over the next three and a half months. “If Democrats had a bullet that would create jobs without adding to the deficit, maybe,” she says, emphasizing maybe, “that would be an issue to run on.”
The smartest and most credible political strategists from both parties analyze the politics similarly.
Focus on Jobs
“This election is mostly driven by the economy,” says John Weaver, a Republican strategist and former top adviser to that party’s 2008 presidential nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona. “The White House, for reasons inexplicable to me, has chosen not to focus on jobs and the economy; nothing matters more, and Obama doesn’t strike a very empathetic pose at times.”
Geoffrey Garin, one of the top Democratic pollsters and political advisers, says this drives his concerns. “The lack of optimism that people are feeling about the economy really sets the tone for this election,” he says.
The gap between the reality of an economy, which, while struggling, is rebounding from the depths and the public’s perception that it is worse than before reflects communications shortcomings as well as events beyond the control of either the president or his party.
Stimulus Spending
Last week, the administration claimed that its 2009 economic stimulus package saved between 2.5 million and 3.6 million jobs. Many respected private analysts, such as Mark Zandi, chief economist at New York-based Moody’s Analytics Inc., concur.
The public disagrees, costing Democrats a traditional advantage. “Stimulus has become a code word for overspending and deficits, not job creation,” Weaver says. “Democrats have lost that debate amongst swing voters.”
Talk to voters about the stimulus and it’s not uncommon for them to start railing about bailing out the banks or rescuing the inept auto companies. There is less talk about programs that prevented teachers or cops from being laid off or created green jobs.
Garin suspects that the BP Plc oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico has been a double negative whammy for Obama. It has distracted the White House’s focus from the overarching economic issue. And voters figure that the spill itself has substantial economic consequences.
‘Angry Everywhere’
“People are angry everywhere, from border to border, coast to coast,” Garin worries.
That is apparent in election expert Stu Rothenberg’s recent calculation that 79 House contests are in play or competitive in the November election. Of those, 67 are held by Democrats and while there is concentration in some states -- seven in New York, five in Ohio -- it’s national in scope, affecting Democratic-held seats in 35 states.
So why are Democrats doing better in those handful of Senate races, including Nevada, where Majority Leader Harry Reid was written off for dead in May? The answer is self-inflicted Republican wounds. These are caused either by candidates taking politically unpopular positions, such as privatizing Social Security, or by the party’s purging of its strongest candidates, as in Florida, where it’s possible that Governor Charlie Crist will win as an independent, after being driven out of his party’s primary by a more conservative candidate.
Trending Republican
At the same time, there are at least as many Senate races, including Washington, Wisconsin, California, North Carolina and Indiana, that have moved more in the Republicans’ direction.
Yet Weaver, who expects his party to have a banner November, says the gains may not be enduring and may even signal problems in 2012.
“We’re still the party of the angry white man, and we seem to have not learned anything about reaching out to new voters, Hispanics or younger people,” he says. “Even with our success in November, we’re creating a huge deficit structurally going into the next presidential election.”
That won’t much matter, he says, in the midterm elections. Voters now seem eager to punish the incumbent party for their economic insecuritie
Sunday, July 18, 2010
Bristol Palin
The Huffington Post) – UPDATE: Sarah and Todd Palin said in a statement on NBC’s “Today” on Tuesday that want the best for their children and that Bristol believes in “redemption and forgiveness.” And it seems Bristol blames his mother for her initial break. In a recently published interview with People, Bristol, said that his mother had been a vice presidential candidate, she and Levi and I would be married and have never been divided.
Before: Bristol Palin and Levi Johnston has been hired, and who have shared the news on the cover of Us Weekly, seen below. They have not shared the news with Bristol’s mother, Sarah Palin, who has mocked Levi as “Ricky Hollywood” and reached into his no applicants’ race.
Bristol brilliant, “It is intimidating and frightening to think about what your reaction will be. We hope to jump on board.”
Apparently reconvened three months ago, and took two weeks ago. They told the magazine that are waiting to have S-EX- until marriage, as Bristol is committed to abstinence. Fortunately want a short engagement and hope to marry in the next six weeks. Reconnects when it met to discuss the custody of the son of Tripp, 18 months.
“I really thought were over,” the magazine says Levi. “So when I went, I had no hope. I think we both started talking – and then took a walk Tripp.”
Bristol continues: “When he left that night, we had a hug or a kiss, but I was thinking how different it was. I texted:” I miss you. I love you. I want to be with you again I was in shock.”
Pick us for more of the interview and “exclusive photos, for which the pair allegedly paid. Visible on the cover is new engagement ring Bristol. Levi now has his name tattooed on his ring finger.
Before: Bristol Palin and Levi Johnston has been hired, and who have shared the news on the cover of Us Weekly, seen below. They have not shared the news with Bristol’s mother, Sarah Palin, who has mocked Levi as “Ricky Hollywood” and reached into his no applicants’ race.
Bristol brilliant, “It is intimidating and frightening to think about what your reaction will be. We hope to jump on board.”
Apparently reconvened three months ago, and took two weeks ago. They told the magazine that are waiting to have S-EX- until marriage, as Bristol is committed to abstinence. Fortunately want a short engagement and hope to marry in the next six weeks. Reconnects when it met to discuss the custody of the son of Tripp, 18 months.
“I really thought were over,” the magazine says Levi. “So when I went, I had no hope. I think we both started talking – and then took a walk Tripp.”
Bristol continues: “When he left that night, we had a hug or a kiss, but I was thinking how different it was. I texted:” I miss you. I love you. I want to be with you again I was in shock.”
Pick us for more of the interview and “exclusive photos, for which the pair allegedly paid. Visible on the cover is new engagement ring Bristol. Levi now has his name tattooed on his ring finger.
Bank Of America Online
launching a new “Electronic Banking” account early next month that will charge a monthly fee and 8.95 if the customer wants that the judgments of paper or ATM access to routine declarations.
Otherwise, it’s free for customers who rely solely on the bank’s online and mobile banking platforms and ATM network. In the fall, the account will replace the product CollegeEdge bank checks, which does not carry a charge.
Offer Details
The new account can be opened online, by phone or through a branch. When a customer logs on to Online Banking for the first time a message is the promotion of electronic statements. Customers should also use ATMs to check balances and deposits and withdrawals, or you will be charged the rate and 8.95. ATM service is available for transactions that an ATM can not handle, such as those related currencies.
No initial deposit required, and direct deposit available. If you open a savings account and is eligible for Bank of America “Keep the Change”, which rounds the cost of debit card purchases to the nearest dollar and deposits the difference into a savings account.
Entre racks
Banks of all sizes have been introduced or increased maintenance fees for checking and savings accounts to help offset costs. Most have options for customers to avoid fees, such as using direct deposit or minimum balance.
The industry has also been trying to direct customers to online statements. Few banks have begun to charge for paper returns, but*n*lysts expect more to adopt such a quota.
Bank of America is to emphasize the desirability of the new account for customers who are “ongoing.” The bill was designed to attract young, tech-savvy consumers. But David Owen, payments and products with the executives of Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank said customers who have opened accounts in a test run in Georgia demographics span larger than expected.
More than one third of the audit of the accounts opened in Georgia since November have been eBanking accounts, he said.
Otherwise, it’s free for customers who rely solely on the bank’s online and mobile banking platforms and ATM network. In the fall, the account will replace the product CollegeEdge bank checks, which does not carry a charge.
Offer Details
The new account can be opened online, by phone or through a branch. When a customer logs on to Online Banking for the first time a message is the promotion of electronic statements. Customers should also use ATMs to check balances and deposits and withdrawals, or you will be charged the rate and 8.95. ATM service is available for transactions that an ATM can not handle, such as those related currencies.
No initial deposit required, and direct deposit available. If you open a savings account and is eligible for Bank of America “Keep the Change”, which rounds the cost of debit card purchases to the nearest dollar and deposits the difference into a savings account.
Entre racks
Banks of all sizes have been introduced or increased maintenance fees for checking and savings accounts to help offset costs. Most have options for customers to avoid fees, such as using direct deposit or minimum balance.
The industry has also been trying to direct customers to online statements. Few banks have begun to charge for paper returns, but*n*lysts expect more to adopt such a quota.
Bank of America is to emphasize the desirability of the new account for customers who are “ongoing.” The bill was designed to attract young, tech-savvy consumers. But David Owen, payments and products with the executives of Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank said customers who have opened accounts in a test run in Georgia demographics span larger than expected.
More than one third of the audit of the accounts opened in Georgia since November have been eBanking accounts, he said.
Bank Of America Online
Bank Of America Online:Bank of America is launching a new “Electronic Banking” account early next month that will charge a monthly fee and 8.95 if the customer wants that the judgments of paper or ATM access to routine declarations.
Otherwise, it’s free for customers who rely solely on the bank’s online and mobile banking platforms and ATM network. In the fall, the account will replace the product CollegeEdge bank checks, which does not carry a charge.
Offer Details
The new account can be opened online, by phone or through a branch. When a customer logs on to Online Banking for the first time a message is the promotion of electronic statements. Customers should also use ATMs to check balances and deposits and withdrawals, or you will be charged the rate and 8.95. ATM service is available for transactions that an ATM can not handle, such as those related currencies.
No initial deposit required, and direct deposit available. If you open a savings account and is eligible for Bank of America “Keep the Change”, which rounds the cost of debit card purchases to the nearest dollar and deposits the difference into a savings account.
Banks of all sizes have been introduced or increased maintenance fees for checking and savings accounts to help offset costs. Most have options for customers to avoid fees, such as using direct deposit or minimum balance.
The industry has also been trying to direct customers to online statements. Few banks have begun to charge for paper returns, but*n*lysts expect more to adopt such a quota.
Bank of America is to emphasize the desirability of the new account for customers who are “ongoing.” The bill was designed to attract young, tech-savvy consumers. But David Owen, payments and products with the executives of Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank said customers who have opened accounts in a test run in Georgia demographics span larger than expected.
More than one third of the audit of the accounts opened in Georgia since November have been eBanking accounts, he said.
Otherwise, it’s free for customers who rely solely on the bank’s online and mobile banking platforms and ATM network. In the fall, the account will replace the product CollegeEdge bank checks, which does not carry a charge.
Offer Details
The new account can be opened online, by phone or through a branch. When a customer logs on to Online Banking for the first time a message is the promotion of electronic statements. Customers should also use ATMs to check balances and deposits and withdrawals, or you will be charged the rate and 8.95. ATM service is available for transactions that an ATM can not handle, such as those related currencies.
No initial deposit required, and direct deposit available. If you open a savings account and is eligible for Bank of America “Keep the Change”, which rounds the cost of debit card purchases to the nearest dollar and deposits the difference into a savings account.
Banks of all sizes have been introduced or increased maintenance fees for checking and savings accounts to help offset costs. Most have options for customers to avoid fees, such as using direct deposit or minimum balance.
The industry has also been trying to direct customers to online statements. Few banks have begun to charge for paper returns, but*n*lysts expect more to adopt such a quota.
Bank of America is to emphasize the desirability of the new account for customers who are “ongoing.” The bill was designed to attract young, tech-savvy consumers. But David Owen, payments and products with the executives of Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank said customers who have opened accounts in a test run in Georgia demographics span larger than expected.
More than one third of the audit of the accounts opened in Georgia since November have been eBanking accounts, he said.
2010 British Open: Why Tiger Woods Will Win
ST ANDREWS, SCOTLAND - JULY 16: Tiger Woods of the USA hits his tee shot on the 18th hole during the second round of the 139th Open Championship on the Old Course, St Andrews on July 16, 2010 in St Andrews, Scotland. (Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images) Andrew Redington/Getty Images
Starting Saturday, the Open will start in earnest, as the cut is made, and everyone knows who the leader is.
Now, it's to the advantage of the earlier players to get around the course before the wind starts howling.
This factor alone should bring Louis Oosthuizen back to the field on Saturday, and caught by Sunday.
I would expect Oosthuizen to card around even on Saturday if he is lucky. Plus three might be a little closer to reality.
This is not the winner of the 2010 British Open. Not even close.
Now in second place at minus seven, is a wind player of the highest caliber in Mark Cakcavecchia, who should hang around right at even par, and stay right in the hunt.
Calcavecchia is also not your British Open Winner.
Somehow, Paul Csaey managed to survive some bad holes to card a minus six for two days, along with Lee Westwood, and Stephen Tiley, both at six under also.
These are not your British Open Winners, although Westwood could be second overall, if things happen like I have foreseen in my dream.
Uh oh, the cat's out of the bag. I am a golf medium and I have dreams about tournaments, It was a wild dream last week as Stricker came through as I saw him clearly winning the John Deere Classic.
Let us look at the list of names at minus five that will not win the British Open—Tom Lehman, Ricky Barnes, Peter Hanson, Miguel Angel Jimenez, Graeme McDowell, Retief Goosen, Sean O'Hair, Jin Jeong, and Alejandro Canizeras.
None of these players will win the British Open, although Retief Goosen gets third.
At four under par are Ignacio Garrido, [again huh?],Robert Karlson, Toru Tanaguchi,[yeah, right], Martin Kaymer, Nick Watney, and Darren Clarke.
None of these players have a chance to win. Oosthizen gets a fourth place on Sunday after getting back into the mix a little with two timely birdies.
No one at minus three or under can win this tournament.
This brings us to the focal point of the dream, Saturdays trip around St. Andrews with one Eldrick "Tiger" Woods.
Tiger will card a three under par for the tournament on Saturday and be two shots behind going into Sundays round.
He plays with Oosthuizen on Sunday in the final group. End of story.
Starting Saturday, the Open will start in earnest, as the cut is made, and everyone knows who the leader is.
Now, it's to the advantage of the earlier players to get around the course before the wind starts howling.
This factor alone should bring Louis Oosthuizen back to the field on Saturday, and caught by Sunday.
I would expect Oosthuizen to card around even on Saturday if he is lucky. Plus three might be a little closer to reality.
This is not the winner of the 2010 British Open. Not even close.
Now in second place at minus seven, is a wind player of the highest caliber in Mark Cakcavecchia, who should hang around right at even par, and stay right in the hunt.
Calcavecchia is also not your British Open Winner.
Somehow, Paul Csaey managed to survive some bad holes to card a minus six for two days, along with Lee Westwood, and Stephen Tiley, both at six under also.
These are not your British Open Winners, although Westwood could be second overall, if things happen like I have foreseen in my dream.
Uh oh, the cat's out of the bag. I am a golf medium and I have dreams about tournaments, It was a wild dream last week as Stricker came through as I saw him clearly winning the John Deere Classic.
Let us look at the list of names at minus five that will not win the British Open—Tom Lehman, Ricky Barnes, Peter Hanson, Miguel Angel Jimenez, Graeme McDowell, Retief Goosen, Sean O'Hair, Jin Jeong, and Alejandro Canizeras.
None of these players will win the British Open, although Retief Goosen gets third.
At four under par are Ignacio Garrido, [again huh?],Robert Karlson, Toru Tanaguchi,[yeah, right], Martin Kaymer, Nick Watney, and Darren Clarke.
None of these players have a chance to win. Oosthizen gets a fourth place on Sunday after getting back into the mix a little with two timely birdies.
No one at minus three or under can win this tournament.
This brings us to the focal point of the dream, Saturdays trip around St. Andrews with one Eldrick "Tiger" Woods.
Tiger will card a three under par for the tournament on Saturday and be two shots behind going into Sundays round.
He plays with Oosthuizen on Sunday in the final group. End of story.
Thursday, July 15, 2010
Tiger Woods manages to find way
ST. ANDREWS, Scotland - Shortly before 8 o’clock, along about the time John Daly’s first birdie putt of the day was dropping, some 376 yards away, Tiger Woods made his first appearance of the morning.
As he emerged from the locker room yesterday he was preceded by a gaggle of R&A stewards, uniformed policemen and his own hired muscle. As they circled the green for the second time it became apparent that somebody had taken a wrong turn somewhere along the line. Tiger was plainly lost.
But from then until Woods’ wayward drive off the 17th tee, it was pretty much the only mistake he would make.
The comedy of errors in the search for the practice green coincided with a remarkable change in the weather. The torrential rains that had pelted St. Andrews for the better part of a day abruptly subsided, and with that, the wind vanished as well.
It was awkward. Absolutely weird, Woods said after his opening-round 67 left him within 4 shots of the lead at the 150th British Open. “There wasn’t even a whisper of wind. I’ve never seen that before. You never play a links golf course with no wind.
One of the wonders of the Old Course is that depending on the direction and the velocity of the wind, it can be many different golf courses. In the absence of wind, though, it isn’t much of a golf course at all. Utterly defenseless, it was at the mercy of the morning field, and, Woods quickly realized, you had to go get it.
He could see on the leaderboard what Rory McIlroy (9-under 63), two groups ahead of him, was doing, and he could see what John Daly (66), several groups ahead of McIlroy, was doing as well.
The golf course was there to be had,” Woods said. “By the time I was playing 1 and 18 you had to be 6-under to be in the top 10. You don’t see that at too many majors.
Considering how things have gone for Woods in 2010 it was a most satisfying day. Not a single catcall from the galleries. No lap-dancer jokes, no shouts of “You da man.
(The crowds) have always been respectful and enthusiastic here, he said. “There’s no reason it would have been any different. They were great. We were making a bunch of birdies, so they had a lot to cheer about.
He made the turn 3-under, and then beginning on the 12th hole, rattled off three birdies in a row to get himself to 6-under at a time when McIlroy and Daly were but a shot better.
His first truly bad drive of the day came on the 17th. “I was trying to hit a cut, and I just didn’t trust it,” he said. The 3-wood sailed off into the left rough.
And he still nearly saved par. He looked to be in birdie position on the closing hole as well, when his drive reached the Valley of Sin just in front of the green. Putting from there, Woods left it well short, and had to settle for par.
“With the conditions we had, you had to take advantage,he said. I felt like I did a pretty good job of that today.
As he emerged from the locker room yesterday he was preceded by a gaggle of R&A stewards, uniformed policemen and his own hired muscle. As they circled the green for the second time it became apparent that somebody had taken a wrong turn somewhere along the line. Tiger was plainly lost.
But from then until Woods’ wayward drive off the 17th tee, it was pretty much the only mistake he would make.
The comedy of errors in the search for the practice green coincided with a remarkable change in the weather. The torrential rains that had pelted St. Andrews for the better part of a day abruptly subsided, and with that, the wind vanished as well.
It was awkward. Absolutely weird, Woods said after his opening-round 67 left him within 4 shots of the lead at the 150th British Open. “There wasn’t even a whisper of wind. I’ve never seen that before. You never play a links golf course with no wind.
One of the wonders of the Old Course is that depending on the direction and the velocity of the wind, it can be many different golf courses. In the absence of wind, though, it isn’t much of a golf course at all. Utterly defenseless, it was at the mercy of the morning field, and, Woods quickly realized, you had to go get it.
He could see on the leaderboard what Rory McIlroy (9-under 63), two groups ahead of him, was doing, and he could see what John Daly (66), several groups ahead of McIlroy, was doing as well.
The golf course was there to be had,” Woods said. “By the time I was playing 1 and 18 you had to be 6-under to be in the top 10. You don’t see that at too many majors.
Considering how things have gone for Woods in 2010 it was a most satisfying day. Not a single catcall from the galleries. No lap-dancer jokes, no shouts of “You da man.
(The crowds) have always been respectful and enthusiastic here, he said. “There’s no reason it would have been any different. They were great. We were making a bunch of birdies, so they had a lot to cheer about.
He made the turn 3-under, and then beginning on the 12th hole, rattled off three birdies in a row to get himself to 6-under at a time when McIlroy and Daly were but a shot better.
His first truly bad drive of the day came on the 17th. “I was trying to hit a cut, and I just didn’t trust it,” he said. The 3-wood sailed off into the left rough.
And he still nearly saved par. He looked to be in birdie position on the closing hole as well, when his drive reached the Valley of Sin just in front of the green. Putting from there, Woods left it well short, and had to settle for par.
“With the conditions we had, you had to take advantage,he said. I felt like I did a pretty good job of that today.
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